Current MP: Graham West (ALP), since the 2001 by-election. He is retiring at this election.
Federal electorates covered by: Werriwa/Macarthur
Margin: ALP by 18.5%
Candidates: The new ALP candidate is Nick Bleasdale, who contested Macarthur in 2007 and 2010, narrowly losing in both elections. The branches wanted Anoulack Chanthivong, but due to race issues, head office planted Bleasdale. Liberal candidate is local policeman Bryan Doyle.
Demographics: The electorate (god only knows why) has a lot of young people, with it having the 4th highest proportion of 15-24 year olds, as well as having a lot of housing commission. It is probably the most mono-cultural of Labor's safe seats in Sydney, with only 18.46% of the population being born with in a non-English speaking country.
Issues: The dumping of the original candidate might not be seen as a good move by some people.
Observation: Campbelltown's one of the strangest electorates, being a bridging gap of sorts between Labor's ethnic heartland and the more marginal outer suburbs. In this case, it is normally a safe Labor electorate, but in a year like this, it could still fall.
Prediction: Labor retain
No comments:
Post a Comment