Sunday, January 16, 2011


Current MP: Katrina Hodkinson (NAT), since 1999.
Federal electorates covered by: Hume/Riverina
Margin: NAT by 17.6%
Candidates: It is assumed that Hodkinson will run again. No word on the other candidates.
Observation: This seat is very safe for the Nationals since the 2007 redistribution. It shouldn't change this year, however there is an outside chance of a strong independent emerging.
Prediction: Nationals retain

Blue Mountains (Key Seat)

Current MP: Phil Koperburg, the former Rural Fire Services Chief, since 2007 (ALP). He is retiring at this election, a victim of the 'mob' mentality of NSW Labor.
Federal electorates covered by: Macquarie
Margin: ALP by 11.1%
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is Trish Doyle. The Liberals are running Roza Sage. The Greens are running Kerrin O'Grady. Janet Mays, a councilor, is running as an independent.
Observation: Although Labor would win this seat with a similar majority on federal figures, the regional seats told a strange story on federal figures. It is worth noting that the electorate has gone to whoever won power at every election, so going by that the Libs should win easy. It is also worth noting that the Greens poll very well here, so they may surprise.
Prediction: LIBERAL GAIN


Current MP: Paul Gibson (ALP), since 1999. He is retiring at this election.
Federal electorates covered by: Chifley/Greenway
Margin: ALP by 22.3%
History: Based on the outer suburban suburb of Blacktown, this electorate is a very safe one for Labor. The only time that the Liberals won it in it's long history was in 1959.
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is John Robertson, the current Transport minister, and the former head of Unions NSW. He was a member in the Legislative Council for a couple of years, suggesting that the move to the Lower House could set off a leadership challenge after this year. Karlo Siljeg is the Liberal candidate.
Observation: Although Labor can expect a drop in support here, it is unlikely that they'd be in trouble.
Prediction: Labor retain

Thursday, January 6, 2011


Current MP: Andrew Constance (LIB), since 2003.
Margin: LIB by 5.1%
History: Based on the far South Coast in NSW, this is usually a safe Liberal seat. Labor has never won it, however the swing was far smaller than most seats won by the Libs.
Candidates: It is assumed that Andrew Constance is running again. No word on a Labor or other candidates.
Observation: Although the margin is small enough for Labor to win it someday in the future, given the havoc that's likely to spread over NSW this year, it won't happen this time round.
Prediction: Liberal retain

Baulkham Hills

Current MP: Wayne Merton (LIB), since 1991. He is retiring at this election
Margin: LIB by 10.3%
History: Based on the upper-class conservative heartland on the North Shore, and in the Hills District, this seat has always been won by the Liberal party, and usually by comfortable margins. It was called Carlingford before 1991.
Candidates: The new Liberal candidate is David Elliott, the CEO of the Civil Contractors Federation, and a former Army person. Labor's candidate is Tony Hay, who I know little about other than the fact that he contested this seat in 2007.
Observation: This seat is very safe for the Liberals and in a year like this it should be won very easily by them.
Prediction: Liberal retain