Friday, February 4, 2011

Cabramatta (Key Seat)

Current MP: Nick Lalich (ALP), since the 2008 by-election, where he replaced Reba Meagher.
Federal electorates covered by: Fowler
Margin: ALP by 29.0% (or 7.2% on the by-election results)
Candidates: Nick Lalich is re-contesting. Vietnamese documentary producer Dai Le is the Liberal candidate. Danny Griffiths is the Greens candidate.
Demographics: At least on demographics, this should be the solidest Labor seat out there. It has a ridiculous Vietnamese population (32% of people are born in South East Asia, around 10 times the average), a very high proportion of Buddhists (35% of the population, 15 times the average), around 4/5ths of the population have at least one parent born overseas, and few people in the electorate with professional employment, with most people being employed as unskilled workers.
Observation: With that in mind, that fact that it seen as even close is showing how bad NSW Labor are. That's what might well happen, with Lalich seen as a hack and Le seen as quite impressive. Also, in ethnic areas of NSW, there was a huge swing against Labor.
Prediction: Labor retain

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