Tuesday, September 28, 2010

So...what elections next?

Already it's been a super interesting year with elections. We've had...

* South Australia 2010, causing a narrow Labor majority, despite a weird redistribution system...
* Tasmania 2010, causing a hung parliament with the Greens having the balance of power - they opted to support Labor.
* Federal 2010, which caused the first hung parliament in seventy years. Long time mate, long time. In the end, the Greens, Andrew Wilkie, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott opted to support Labor, whereas Bob Katter and the WA Nationals opted to support the Coalition.

We have two more upcoming elections - NSW in March 2011, and Victoria in November 2010. fwiw, the current pendulums....


LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Mount WaverleyMaxine MorandALP0.3%
GembrookTammy LobatoALP0.7%
Forest HillKirstie MarshallALP0.8%
MelbourneBronwyn PikeALP v GRN1.93%
MitchamTony RobinsonALP2.0%
South BarwonMichael CrutchfieldALP2.3%
FrankstonAlistair HarknessALP3.2%
MordiallocJanice MuntALP3.5%
BrunswickCarlo CarliALP v GRN3.6%
PrahranTony LuptonALP3.6%
RichmondRichard WynneALP v GRN3.6%
BurwoodBob StensholtALP3.7%
RiponJoe HelperALP4.3%
Bendigo EastJacinta AllanALP5.4%
Fairly safe
BentleighRob HudsonALP6.3%
Ballarat WestKaren OveringtonALP6.5%
ElthamSteve HerbertALP6.5%
Ballarat EastGeoff HowardALP6.6%
CarrumJenny LindellALP6.7%
MonbulkJames MerlinoALP6.7%
SeymourBen HardmanALP6.7%
BellarineLisa NevilleALP7.9%
Yan YeanDanielle GreenALP7.9%
AltonaJill HennessyALP7.93%
MacedonJoanne DuncanALP8.2%
GeelongIan TreziseALP8.3%
NorthcoteFiona RichardsonALP v GRN8.5%
Narre Warren NorthLuke DonnellanALP9.2%
Albert ParkMartin FoleyALP9.5%
Safe
IvanhoevacantALP10.4%
Bendigo WestBob CameronALP10.6%
Narre Warren SouthJudith GraleyALP10.9%
NiddrieRob HullsALP11.2%
CranbourneJude PereraALP11.3%
EssendonJudy MaddiganALP11.7%
OakleighAnn BarkerALP12.4%
TarneitTim PallasALP12.5%
MeltonDon NardellaALP13.5%
BundooraColin BrooksALP15.1%
MulgraveDaniel AndrewsALP15.8%
LaraJohn ErenALP17.9%
DandenongJohn PandazopoulosALP18.7%
KeilorGeorge SeitzALP19.4%
Very safe
YurokeLiz BeattieALP20.2%
ClaytonHong LimALP20.3%
Mill ParkLily D'AmbrosioALP20.8%
LyndhurstTim HoldingALP21.5%
Pascoe ValeChristine CampbellALP22.8%
DerrimutTelmo LanguillerALP24.3%
WilliamstownWade NoonanALP24.3%
FootscrayBruce MildenhallALP24.7%
PrestonRobin ScottALP25.3%
KororoitMarlene KairouzALP25.6%
ThomastownPeter BatchelorALP31.1%
BroadmeadowsJohn BrumbyALP31.9%
LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
Ferntree GullyNick WakelingLIB0.04%
KilsythDavid HodgettLIB0.4%
HastingsNeale BurgessLIB1.0%
MorwellRussell NortheNAT2.2%
NarracanGary BlackwoodLIB2.7%
EvelynChristine FyffeLIB2.18%
BayswaterHeidi VictoriaLIB2.9%
South-West CoastDenis NapthineLIB4.0%
BassKen SmithLIB4.5%
Box HillRobert ClarkLIB5.2%
Fairly safe
CaulfieldHelen ShardeyLIB7.6%
BenambraBill TilleyLIB7.7%
DoncasterMary WooldridgeLIB8.1%
BulleenNick KotsirasLIB8.4%
SadringhamMurray ThompsonLIB8.7%
WarrandyteRyan SmithLIB9.0%
NepeanMartin DixonLIB9.4%
KewAndrew McIntoshLIB9.6%
Safe
PolwarthTerry MulderLIB10.7%
BrightonLouise AsherLIB10.9%
ScoresbyKim WellsLIB11.2%
MalvenMichael O'BrienLIB11.3%
MorningtonDavid MorrisLIB11.9%
HawthornTed BaillieuLIB12.3%
Gippsland SouthPeter RyanNAT15.8%
BenallaBill SykesNAT17.7%
Very safe
MilduraPeter CrispNAT20.7%
Murray ValleyKen JasperNAT21.8%
LowanHugh DelahuntyNAT22.1%
Swan HillPeter WalshNAT23.4%
SheppartonJeanette PowellNAT24.7%
RodneyPaul WellerNAT24.8%
Independents
Gippsland EastCraig IngramIND v LIB9.1%

and....

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
MirandaBarry CollierALP0.8 point
NewcastleJodi McKayALP v IND1.2 point
MaitlandFrank TerenziniALP v IND2.0 points
MenaiAlison MegarrityALP2.7 points
WollondillyPhil CostaALP3.3 points
BalmainVerity FirthALP v GRN3.7 points
CamdenGeoff CorriganALP3.9 points
GosfordMarie AndrewsALP4.9 points
The EntranceGrant McBrideALP4.9 points
Fairly safe
MonaroSteve WhanALP v NAT6.3 points
LondonderryAllan ShearanALP6.9 points
WyongDavid HarrisALP6.9 points
CoogeePaul PearceALP7.2 points
MarrickvilleCarmel TebbuttALP v GRN7.5 points
DrummoyneAngela D'AmoreALP7.6 points
HeathcotePaul McLeayALP8.8 points
Safe
RiverstoneJohn AquilinaALP10.1 points
RockdaleFrank SartorALP10.3 points
SwanseaRobert CoombsALP10.8 points
Blue MountainsPhil KoperbergALP11.1 points
GranvilleDavid BorgerALP11.1 points
Macquarie FieldsAndrew McDonaldALP11.1 points
MulgoaDiane BeamerALP11.1 points
KiamaMatt BrownALP12.0 points
CessnockKerry HickeyALP v NAT12.4 points
BathurstGerard MartinALP v NAT13.0 points
ParramattaTanya GadielALP13.7 points
East HillsAlan AshtonALP14.1 points
OatleyKevin GreeneALP14.4 points
ToongabbieNathan ReesALP14.4 points
CharlestownMatthew MorrisALP v IND14.6 points
StrathfieldVirginia JudgeALP15.1 points
SmithfieldNinos KhoshabaALP15.5 points
WallsendSonia HorneryALP15.8 points
MaroubraMichael DaleyALP16.1 points
KogarahCherie BurtonALP17.7 points
CampbelltownGraham WestALP18.5 points
Very safe
FairfieldJoe TripodiALP20.4 points
KeiraDavid CampbellALP22.0 points
BlacktownPaul GibsonALP22.4 points
HeffronKristina KeneallyALP23.7 points
WollongongNoreen HayALP25.3 points
BankstownTony StewartALP25.4 points
Mount DruittRichard AmeryALP25.4 points
ShellharbourLylea McMahonALP26.8 points
LiverpoolPaul LynchALP26.9 points
CanterburyLinda BurneyALP27.1 points
AuburnBarbara PerryALP28.7 points
CabramattaNick LalichALP29.0 points
LakembaRobert FuroloALP34.0 points
LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
Port StephensCraig BaumannLIB0.1 point
GoulburnPru GowardLIB v IND1.3 point
TweedGeoff ProvestNAT3.0 points
ManlyMike BairdLIB v IND3.4 points
BegaAndrew ConstanceLIB5.1 points
Fairly safe
HawkesburyRay WilliamsLIB v IND6.0 points
BarwonKevin HumphriesNAT v IND6.2 points
South CoastShelley HancockLIB7.8 points
EppingGreg SmithLIB8.0 points
TerrigalChris HartcherLIB8.4 points
PittwaterRob StokesLIB v IND9.4 points
Safe
LismoreThomas GeorgeNAT10.0 points
Murray-DarlingJohn WilliamsNAT10.1 points
Baulkham HillsWayne MertonLIB10.5 points
ClarenceSteve CansdellNAT11.6 points
Lane CoveAnthony RobertsLIB12.4 points
RydeVictor DominelloLIB13.0 points
Wagga WaggaDaryl MaguireLIB13.0 points
BallinaDon PageNAT14.5 points
WilloughbyGladys BerejiklianLIB v IND14.5 points
Upper HunterGeorge SourisNAT14.7 points
OxleyAndrew StonerNAT15.9 points
MurrumbidgeeAdrian PiccoliNAT16.1 points
VauclusePeter DebnamLIB v GRN16.1 points
PenrithStuart AyresLIB16.48 points
HornsbyJudy HopwoodLIB16.5 points
OrangeRussell TurnerNAT17.2 points
BurrinjuckKatrina HodgkinsonNAT17.3 points
WakehurstBrad HazzardLIB17.3 points
Myall LakesJohn TurnerNAT17.4 points
CronullaMalcolm KerrLIB17.5 points
Coffs HarbourAndrew FraserNAT17.6 points
AlburyGreg AplinLIB19.0 points
Castle HillMichael RichardsonLIB19.1 points
North ShoreJillian SkinnerLIB v GRN19.2 points
Very safe
DavidsonJonathan O'DeaLIB24.7 points
Ku-ring-gaiBarry O'FarrellLIB29.0 points
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Lake MacquarieGreg PiperIND v ALP0.1 point
DubboDawn FardellIND v NAT0.9 point
Port MacquariePeter BesselingIND v NAT4.5 points
TamworthPeter DraperIND v NAT4.8 points
SydneyClover MooreIND v ALP16.6 points
Northern TablelandsRichard TorbayIND v NAT30.2 points
as you can perhaps see, Liberal need 13 seats in Victoria, at a swing of 6%, and O'Farrell needs a swing of 6.1%, and 10 seats. Wins are both possible for either sides, but look at the polling. Labor are still well ahead of the race, but ask Jeff Kennett about that who's leading right now means Sweet FA. I still think Labor will win there, unless someone else says something. Liberal will win by a country mile in NSW - we will wait and see what seats fall until later.