Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Bathurst (Key Seat)

Current MP: Gerard Martin (ALP), since 1999. He is retiring at this election.
Margin: ALP by 13%
History: Based on Bathurst, Lithgow and surrounding rural areas, this seat is typically a safe one for the ALP due to the high Labor vote in the big towns of Lithgow and Bathurst. However, the seat has been won by conservative parties in the past.
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is Dale Turner, an operator of a property conveyancing with his wife. Nationals candidate is Paul Toole, the local mayor of Bathurst Council.
Issues: A seat where privatisation might hurt.
Observation: On paper, this seat is safe for Labor. However, before the 1999 election, it was held by Labor by a margin of less than 1%, and the MP is retiring. There was also a big swing towards the Nationals at the federal election in this seat and it won't surprise if the Nationals pick it up. There could also be an independent challenge here somewhere.


Current MP: Kevin Humphries (National), since 2007
2007 margin: 6.2% for Nationals (over an independent)
History: Based on the vast area of Northern NSW, this electorate does not seem to have a base. The seat used to be a bellwether, but since the 1950's it has been held by the Nationals.
Candidates: Kevin Humphries is probably running again. No sign of an independent challenger or a Labor candidate yet.
Observation: While this seat is safe for the Nationals, other country electorates have had an independent challenger who have either won or done well in a country seat. However, the fact that it contains about a quarter of NSW means that it is harder for an independent to get a large enough vote to win.
Prediction: Nationals retain


Current MP: Tony Stewart since 1995 (ALP). He is retiring at this election.
2007 margin: ALP by 25.4%
History: Another seat based on Labor's ethnic, working class heartland. For all of it's history it has been held by the ALP, and it's been around since the 20's!
Candidates: The new candidate is local mayor Tania Mihailuk. It does not look like a Liberal candidate has been selected, showing their hopes in winning this seat.
Observation: This seat is very safe for Labor and the corresponding federal seat (Blaxland) did not get a big bump in the Labor margin like other similar seats.
Prediction: Labor retain

Monday, December 20, 2010

Balmain (Key Seat)

Current MP: Verity Firth since 2007 (ALP). She is the Minister for Education.
2007 margin: ALP by 3.7% vs the Greens
History: The area where Labor was founded, it was traditionally a very safe area for Labor, but the times are changing. Gentrification has changed the area from a seaside industrial area to a trendy place to live close to the CBD. While for whatever reason the seat is not at risk to the Liberals, it is one of the best areas in Australia for the Greens, with the Greens controlling Leichhardt Council, which runs through the seat.
Candidates: Although there were rumours that she wouldn't, Verity Firth is running again. The Greens candidate is local mayor Jamie Parker. Liberal candidate is James Falk.
Issues: There's always one. Verity Firth's husband Matthew Chesheh, a staffer to Roads Minister David Borger, was caught over possession of a ecstasy pill, which forced him to tender his resignation as a staffer. While this will hurt in many seats, in a hippie seat like Balmain, it may get her some sympathy.
Observation: Gentrification is wrecking the ALP alive here. Although Firth is a lot better than most of the ALP hacks, it is hard for her to retain the seat, and the Greens have put up a good candidate (unlike a lot of people which seem to be borderline-Communists, not that there's that much problem with it :p), so you'd expect that the Greens will finally win a lower house electorate at state level with single-member constituency's. The thing that may save Labor is sympathy over the drug scandal, plus a possible rise in the Liberal vote may give Labor a chance under OPV, and even give themselves an outside chance of snatching this seat.
Prediction: GREENS GAIN


Current MP: Don Page (National) since 1988.
2007 margin: Nationals by 14.5%
History: Based on the North Coast, at federal level it is a former Nationals heartland that is drifting strongly towards the ALP. However, at state level, it is still a safe Nationals seat, perhaps because Labor haven't tried hard enough, or maybe because the high Green vote that is wiped out due to OPV. Interestingly, it contains Byron Shire, an area of massive Green support.
Candidates: It is expected that Page will run again, despite being in parliament for ages.
Observation: A safe Nationals seat (albeit one that could be more marginal if Labor tried harder), however given Labor's troubles, don't be surprised if the Greens finish 2nd here.
Prediction: Nationals retain


Current MP: Barbara Perry since 2003 (ALP). She is currently the minister for Local Government and Juvenile Justice.
2007 margin: ALP by 28.7%
History: Based on Labor's working class heartland, it is one of the safest seats in the country. It has a high proportion of Muslim's and it was once held by Jack Lang, the radical socialist Premier.
Candidates: Barbara Perry is running again. Liberal candidate is Ned Attie, who doesn't have a profile on the Liberal candidate website, perhaps a sign on how they see their attempts to win.
Observation: While the demographics overwhelmingly favour Labor, it is less safe due to the problems with the government. However, it is hard to see this seat falling even in a rout like this electorate.
Prediction: Labor retain


Well, I'm doing a review of all of the 93 electorates in NSW. Should be good reading.

Albury - named after the town Albury.

Incumbent MP: Greg Aplin (Liberal), since 2003.
2007 margin: LIB by 19.0%
History: Based on the border town of Albury, Albury is like many country electorates, a conservative hotbed. As it is largely Albury rather than having a lot of rural areas around it, it is held by the Liberals. Although a mayor won it in the 70's and 80's, it is hard to see it going anywhere else.
Candidates: No news about the Labor candidate, it is expected that Aplin will re-contest.
Observation: This seat is incredibly safe for Liberal and any year, let alone this year, it is very predictable.
Prediction: Liberal retain

Sunday, December 19, 2010

According to the pendulum, 6 seats are held by margins under 5%, these being Miranda, Menai, Wollondilly, Camden, Gosford and The Entrance. Liberal should win them all, as none of them (apart from maybe the Central Coast seats, which have retiring MP's and are drifting gradually towards Liberal, despite the recent federal election saying otherwise) are natural Labor seats. Wollondilly might be salvageable, as Phil Costa has a high local profile and the issues that are making people pissed off at Labor being less noticeable in a country seat.

A further 6 are held by margins between 5-10%, these being Monaro, Londonderry, Wyong, Coogee, Drummoyne and Heathcote. These should probably all fall too. Monaro could stay put, as Eden-Monaro swung to Labor and it's the sort of seat where a local profile of the MP might count despite everyone hating the ALP in NSW, but Eden-Monaro's generally a bellweather (since 1972, it has gone with whoever won power federally), and in Monaro, from 1941-1995, it went with whoever won power statewise, too. Heathcote's normally a safe Labor seat, but the high Green vote, which goes to Labor via preferences at federal level, might well exhaust, giving Liberal victory. Wyong is normally a Labor seat, too, but the Coast is moving to Liberal, so it'll probably be lost to the Liberals as well. The other 3 are demographically shifting to Liberal, and there's no reason why Labor should them (Drummoyne's having a lot of new housing developments which is pushing the real estate prices up, whereas Coogee's renters are being replaced by people who actually the money to be able to live there, and Londonderry I believe has some semi-rural Hawkesbury territory and outer suburban mortgage belt areas).

It's also worth having a look at; Riverstone, Rockdale, Blue Mountains, Mulgoa, Kiama, Bathurst, Parramatta, East Hills, Oatley, Strathfield, Maroubra and Kogarah. All are safe Labor seats, but for various reasons, are probably in play this year.

Balmain and Marrickville are at a big risk of falling to the Greens (Keira's an outside chance, especially given the retirement of David Campbell, but that would require something weird to happen), whereas seats like Newcastle, Maitland, Woolongong, among others, could fall to independents.

Hard to see any Liberal seats falling, although some independent seats might be at risk (Lake Macquarie's an outside chance of the Liberals overtaking the independent there, whereas a backlash in Tamworth and Port Macquarie following the decisions of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott to support Labor against the electorate's wishes, means that the Nationals could win these back).

Further details will come on board once nominations begin. I'll write up a preview for all of the electorates, but only the edgy seats will have anything substantial however.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Well, I'm back posting. Apologies for a lack of updates, but I'm a lazy boy.

Anyway, the Victorian election caused a massive upset. Really massive. Ted Ballieu, who was only thought of as a potential premier a week before the election (and he was the opposition leader for 4 years! Fair dinkum!) won narrowly to knock out Brumby. Why this happened no-one knows. Bad weather causing Labor voters to cbf? The "fuck you" vote? Time for a change? Liberal putting the Greens last on HTV? (and yes, the Greens failed to win any seats, along with Craig Ingram losing to the Nationals, no seats were won by independents or minor parties). What it will mean is that no-one can take anything into account.

I'll post here occasionally about the NSW state election, where something big's likely to happen. Yes, we know that O'Farrell will most likely win. But by how much? If Victoria's anything to go by, it'll be a whitewash that makes 1988 look close. I'll post what seats you should watch later....

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

So...what elections next?

Already it's been a super interesting year with elections. We've had...

* South Australia 2010, causing a narrow Labor majority, despite a weird redistribution system...
* Tasmania 2010, causing a hung parliament with the Greens having the balance of power - they opted to support Labor.
* Federal 2010, which caused the first hung parliament in seventy years. Long time mate, long time. In the end, the Greens, Andrew Wilkie, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott opted to support Labor, whereas Bob Katter and the WA Nationals opted to support the Coalition.

We have two more upcoming elections - NSW in March 2011, and Victoria in November 2010. fwiw, the current pendulums....

Mount WaverleyMaxine MorandALP0.3%
GembrookTammy LobatoALP0.7%
Forest HillKirstie MarshallALP0.8%
MelbourneBronwyn PikeALP v GRN1.93%
MitchamTony RobinsonALP2.0%
South BarwonMichael CrutchfieldALP2.3%
FrankstonAlistair HarknessALP3.2%
MordiallocJanice MuntALP3.5%
BrunswickCarlo CarliALP v GRN3.6%
PrahranTony LuptonALP3.6%
RichmondRichard WynneALP v GRN3.6%
BurwoodBob StensholtALP3.7%
RiponJoe HelperALP4.3%
Bendigo EastJacinta AllanALP5.4%
Fairly safe
BentleighRob HudsonALP6.3%
Ballarat WestKaren OveringtonALP6.5%
ElthamSteve HerbertALP6.5%
Ballarat EastGeoff HowardALP6.6%
CarrumJenny LindellALP6.7%
MonbulkJames MerlinoALP6.7%
SeymourBen HardmanALP6.7%
BellarineLisa NevilleALP7.9%
Yan YeanDanielle GreenALP7.9%
AltonaJill HennessyALP7.93%
MacedonJoanne DuncanALP8.2%
GeelongIan TreziseALP8.3%
NorthcoteFiona RichardsonALP v GRN8.5%
Narre Warren NorthLuke DonnellanALP9.2%
Albert ParkMartin FoleyALP9.5%
Bendigo WestBob CameronALP10.6%
Narre Warren SouthJudith GraleyALP10.9%
NiddrieRob HullsALP11.2%
CranbourneJude PereraALP11.3%
EssendonJudy MaddiganALP11.7%
OakleighAnn BarkerALP12.4%
TarneitTim PallasALP12.5%
MeltonDon NardellaALP13.5%
BundooraColin BrooksALP15.1%
MulgraveDaniel AndrewsALP15.8%
LaraJohn ErenALP17.9%
DandenongJohn PandazopoulosALP18.7%
KeilorGeorge SeitzALP19.4%
Very safe
YurokeLiz BeattieALP20.2%
ClaytonHong LimALP20.3%
Mill ParkLily D'AmbrosioALP20.8%
LyndhurstTim HoldingALP21.5%
Pascoe ValeChristine CampbellALP22.8%
DerrimutTelmo LanguillerALP24.3%
WilliamstownWade NoonanALP24.3%
FootscrayBruce MildenhallALP24.7%
PrestonRobin ScottALP25.3%
KororoitMarlene KairouzALP25.6%
ThomastownPeter BatchelorALP31.1%
BroadmeadowsJohn BrumbyALP31.9%
Ferntree GullyNick WakelingLIB0.04%
KilsythDavid HodgettLIB0.4%
HastingsNeale BurgessLIB1.0%
MorwellRussell NortheNAT2.2%
NarracanGary BlackwoodLIB2.7%
EvelynChristine FyffeLIB2.18%
BayswaterHeidi VictoriaLIB2.9%
South-West CoastDenis NapthineLIB4.0%
BassKen SmithLIB4.5%
Box HillRobert ClarkLIB5.2%
Fairly safe
CaulfieldHelen ShardeyLIB7.6%
BenambraBill TilleyLIB7.7%
DoncasterMary WooldridgeLIB8.1%
BulleenNick KotsirasLIB8.4%
SadringhamMurray ThompsonLIB8.7%
WarrandyteRyan SmithLIB9.0%
NepeanMartin DixonLIB9.4%
KewAndrew McIntoshLIB9.6%
PolwarthTerry MulderLIB10.7%
BrightonLouise AsherLIB10.9%
ScoresbyKim WellsLIB11.2%
MalvenMichael O'BrienLIB11.3%
MorningtonDavid MorrisLIB11.9%
HawthornTed BaillieuLIB12.3%
Gippsland SouthPeter RyanNAT15.8%
BenallaBill SykesNAT17.7%
Very safe
MilduraPeter CrispNAT20.7%
Murray ValleyKen JasperNAT21.8%
LowanHugh DelahuntyNAT22.1%
Swan HillPeter WalshNAT23.4%
SheppartonJeanette PowellNAT24.7%
RodneyPaul WellerNAT24.8%
Gippsland EastCraig IngramIND v LIB9.1%


MirandaBarry CollierALP0.8 point
NewcastleJodi McKayALP v IND1.2 point
MaitlandFrank TerenziniALP v IND2.0 points
MenaiAlison MegarrityALP2.7 points
WollondillyPhil CostaALP3.3 points
BalmainVerity FirthALP v GRN3.7 points
CamdenGeoff CorriganALP3.9 points
GosfordMarie AndrewsALP4.9 points
The EntranceGrant McBrideALP4.9 points
Fairly safe
MonaroSteve WhanALP v NAT6.3 points
LondonderryAllan ShearanALP6.9 points
WyongDavid HarrisALP6.9 points
CoogeePaul PearceALP7.2 points
MarrickvilleCarmel TebbuttALP v GRN7.5 points
DrummoyneAngela D'AmoreALP7.6 points
HeathcotePaul McLeayALP8.8 points
RiverstoneJohn AquilinaALP10.1 points
RockdaleFrank SartorALP10.3 points
SwanseaRobert CoombsALP10.8 points
Blue MountainsPhil KoperbergALP11.1 points
GranvilleDavid BorgerALP11.1 points
Macquarie FieldsAndrew McDonaldALP11.1 points
MulgoaDiane BeamerALP11.1 points
KiamaMatt BrownALP12.0 points
CessnockKerry HickeyALP v NAT12.4 points
BathurstGerard MartinALP v NAT13.0 points
ParramattaTanya GadielALP13.7 points
East HillsAlan AshtonALP14.1 points
OatleyKevin GreeneALP14.4 points
ToongabbieNathan ReesALP14.4 points
CharlestownMatthew MorrisALP v IND14.6 points
StrathfieldVirginia JudgeALP15.1 points
SmithfieldNinos KhoshabaALP15.5 points
WallsendSonia HorneryALP15.8 points
MaroubraMichael DaleyALP16.1 points
KogarahCherie BurtonALP17.7 points
CampbelltownGraham WestALP18.5 points
Very safe
FairfieldJoe TripodiALP20.4 points
KeiraDavid CampbellALP22.0 points
BlacktownPaul GibsonALP22.4 points
HeffronKristina KeneallyALP23.7 points
WollongongNoreen HayALP25.3 points
BankstownTony StewartALP25.4 points
Mount DruittRichard AmeryALP25.4 points
ShellharbourLylea McMahonALP26.8 points
LiverpoolPaul LynchALP26.9 points
CanterburyLinda BurneyALP27.1 points
AuburnBarbara PerryALP28.7 points
CabramattaNick LalichALP29.0 points
LakembaRobert FuroloALP34.0 points
Port StephensCraig BaumannLIB0.1 point
GoulburnPru GowardLIB v IND1.3 point
TweedGeoff ProvestNAT3.0 points
ManlyMike BairdLIB v IND3.4 points
BegaAndrew ConstanceLIB5.1 points
Fairly safe
HawkesburyRay WilliamsLIB v IND6.0 points
BarwonKevin HumphriesNAT v IND6.2 points
South CoastShelley HancockLIB7.8 points
EppingGreg SmithLIB8.0 points
TerrigalChris HartcherLIB8.4 points
PittwaterRob StokesLIB v IND9.4 points
LismoreThomas GeorgeNAT10.0 points
Murray-DarlingJohn WilliamsNAT10.1 points
Baulkham HillsWayne MertonLIB10.5 points
ClarenceSteve CansdellNAT11.6 points
Lane CoveAnthony RobertsLIB12.4 points
RydeVictor DominelloLIB13.0 points
Wagga WaggaDaryl MaguireLIB13.0 points
BallinaDon PageNAT14.5 points
WilloughbyGladys BerejiklianLIB v IND14.5 points
Upper HunterGeorge SourisNAT14.7 points
OxleyAndrew StonerNAT15.9 points
MurrumbidgeeAdrian PiccoliNAT16.1 points
VauclusePeter DebnamLIB v GRN16.1 points
PenrithStuart AyresLIB16.48 points
HornsbyJudy HopwoodLIB16.5 points
OrangeRussell TurnerNAT17.2 points
BurrinjuckKatrina HodgkinsonNAT17.3 points
WakehurstBrad HazzardLIB17.3 points
Myall LakesJohn TurnerNAT17.4 points
CronullaMalcolm KerrLIB17.5 points
Coffs HarbourAndrew FraserNAT17.6 points
AlburyGreg AplinLIB19.0 points
Castle HillMichael RichardsonLIB19.1 points
North ShoreJillian SkinnerLIB v GRN19.2 points
Very safe
DavidsonJonathan O'DeaLIB24.7 points
Ku-ring-gaiBarry O'FarrellLIB29.0 points
Lake MacquarieGreg PiperIND v ALP0.1 point
DubboDawn FardellIND v NAT0.9 point
Port MacquariePeter BesselingIND v NAT4.5 points
TamworthPeter DraperIND v NAT4.8 points
SydneyClover MooreIND v ALP16.6 points
Northern TablelandsRichard TorbayIND v NAT30.2 points
as you can perhaps see, Liberal need 13 seats in Victoria, at a swing of 6%, and O'Farrell needs a swing of 6.1%, and 10 seats. Wins are both possible for either sides, but look at the polling. Labor are still well ahead of the race, but ask Jeff Kennett about that who's leading right now means Sweet FA. I still think Labor will win there, unless someone else says something. Liberal will win by a country mile in NSW - we will wait and see what seats fall until later.