Current MP: Wayne Merton (LIB), since 1991. He is retiring at this election
Margin: LIB by 10.3%
History: Based on the upper-class conservative heartland on the North Shore, and in the Hills District, this seat has always been won by the Liberal party, and usually by comfortable margins. It was called Carlingford before 1991.
Candidates: The new Liberal candidate is David Elliott, the CEO of the Civil Contractors Federation, and a former Army person. Labor's candidate is Tony Hay, who I know little about other than the fact that he contested this seat in 2007.
Observation: This seat is very safe for the Liberals and in a year like this it should be won very easily by them.
Prediction: Liberal retain