Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Bathurst (Key Seat)

Current MP: Gerard Martin (ALP), since 1999. He is retiring at this election.
Margin: ALP by 13%
History: Based on Bathurst, Lithgow and surrounding rural areas, this seat is typically a safe one for the ALP due to the high Labor vote in the big towns of Lithgow and Bathurst. However, the seat has been won by conservative parties in the past.
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is Dale Turner, an operator of a property conveyancing with his wife. Nationals candidate is Paul Toole, the local mayor of Bathurst Council.
Issues: A seat where privatisation might hurt.
Observation: On paper, this seat is safe for Labor. However, before the 1999 election, it was held by Labor by a margin of less than 1%, and the MP is retiring. There was also a big swing towards the Nationals at the federal election in this seat and it won't surprise if the Nationals pick it up. There could also be an independent challenge here somewhere.

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