Current MP: Kevin Humphries (National), since 2007
2007 margin: 6.2% for Nationals (over an independent)
History: Based on the vast area of Northern NSW, this electorate does not seem to have a base. The seat used to be a bellwether, but since the 1950's it has been held by the Nationals.
Candidates: Kevin Humphries is probably running again. No sign of an independent challenger or a Labor candidate yet.
Observation: While this seat is safe for the Nationals, other country electorates have had an independent challenger who have either won or done well in a country seat. However, the fact that it contains about a quarter of NSW means that it is harder for an independent to get a large enough vote to win.
Prediction: Nationals retain