Charlestown (Key Seat)

Current MP: Matthew Morris (ALP), since 2003. Like many Hunter MP's, his dad was an ex-federal MP.
Federal electorates covered by: Newcastle/Shortland/Charlton
Margin: ALP by 7.0% over Paul Scarfe (vs the Liberals it is by 14.6%)
Candidates: Matthew Morris is running again. Vet Andrew Cornwell is the Liberal candidate. Barry Johnston, a Lake Macquarie councilor, says he will run if no strong independent runs.
Observation: This seat could still fall in an election like this. If independents announce, this could be at a very good chance of falling, although OPV may affect it (if it was CPV, if independents announced Morris would be gone). Even if no independents announced, Cornwell is seen as a good candidate, so even then it might fall.
Prediction: Labor retain (this may change if a strong independent announces)

Cessnock (Key Seat)

Current MP: Kerry Hickey (ALP), since 1999. He is retiring at this election.
Electorates covered by: Hunter/Charlton
Margin: ALP by 12.4%
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is Clayton Barr, a teacher. The Nationals candidate is Alison Davey, also a teacher and a local mayor. Two local councilors (Dale Troy and Allan McCudden) are contesting as independents, and Ian Olsen (the deputy mayor) might too.
Issues: Another seat where the selloff may hurt. Also, the previous MP, Kerry Hickey, got himself into hot water over an affair with a staffer, which tendered his retirement.
Observation: This is usually a safe seat (and even safer on federal figures), but 12% doesn't seem all that safe. In this climate, it could still go. Add a retiring MP to the figures, and you have a seat to watch.
Prediction: NATIONALS GAIN

Castle Hill

Current MP: Michael Richardson, since 1993 (Liberal). He is retiring at this election.
Electorates covered by: Mitchell/Berowra
Margin: Liberal by 19.1%
Candidates: The new Liberal candidate is Dominic Perottet, a lawyer associated with the Christian Right of the party. Labor's candidate is Ryan Tracey.
Demographics: The electorate contains the 2nd highest proportion of traditional families (48.9%) and has the 4th highest proportion of dwellings (78.5%). However, in contrast to electorates with similar demographics, it is a safe Liberal electorate, rather than a marginal.
Observation: This seat is a very safe Liberal electorate, and it is very hard to see anything changing in this election.
Prediction: Liberal retain

Canterbury

Current MP: Linda Burney (ALP), since 2003. She is the Minister of Community Services, and was the first Aboriginal MP in NSW.
Federal electorates covered by: Watson/Grayndler
Margin: ALP by 27.1%
Candidates: Linda Burney is running again. Liberal candidate is Ken Nam, who contested Watson in the federal electorate and got a nice swing towards him.
Demographics: Nothing really special, it is ranked 7th in the NESB rankings, but unlike some seats the migrants tend to be across the board.
Observation: This seat is still safe for Labor and it is hard to see if that will change in this election.
Prediction: Labor retain

Campbelltown (Key Seat)

Current MP: Graham West (ALP), since the 2001 by-election. He is retiring at this election.
Federal electorates covered by: Werriwa/Macarthur
Margin: ALP by 18.5%
Candidates: The new ALP candidate is Nick Bleasdale, who contested Macarthur in 2007 and 2010, narrowly losing in both elections. The branches wanted Anoulack Chanthivong, but due to race issues, head office planted Bleasdale. Liberal candidate is local policeman Bryan Doyle.
Demographics: The electorate (god only knows why) has a lot of young people, with it having the 4th highest proportion of 15-24 year olds, as well as having a lot of housing commission. It is probably the most mono-cultural of Labor's safe seats in Sydney, with only 18.46% of the population being born with in a non-English speaking country.
Issues: The dumping of the original candidate might not be seen as a good move by some people.
Observation: Campbelltown's one of the strangest electorates, being a bridging gap of sorts between Labor's ethnic heartland and the more marginal outer suburbs. In this case, it is normally a safe Labor electorate, but in a year like this, it could still fall.
Prediction: Labor retain

Camden

Current MP: Geoff Corrigan (ALP) since 2003
Federal electorates covered by: Macarthur/Werriwa
Margin: ALP by 3.9%
Candidates: Corrigan is running again. Chris Patterson, the local mayor, is the Liberal candidate.
Demographics: A very new and young area, with a very high proportion of children (8.3% are under 5, and a further 17.3% are 5-14). Also, 20% of people in this electorate currently attend school.
Observation: This electorate is changing. Once a rural electorate on the fringe of Sydney, it is now an area with a lot of new housing estates, making it more desirable for 'aspirationals', also making it more of a swing seat. In a year like this, it is very hard to see how Labor can win a seat like this.
Prediction: LIBERAL GAIN

Cabramatta (Key Seat)

Current MP: Nick Lalich (ALP), since the 2008 by-election, where he replaced Reba Meagher.
Federal electorates covered by: Fowler
Margin: ALP by 29.0% (or 7.2% on the by-election results)
Candidates: Nick Lalich is re-contesting. Vietnamese documentary producer Dai Le is the Liberal candidate. Danny Griffiths is the Greens candidate.
Demographics: At least on demographics, this should be the solidest Labor seat out there. It has a ridiculous Vietnamese population (32% of people are born in South East Asia, around 10 times the average), a very high proportion of Buddhists (35% of the population, 15 times the average), around 4/5ths of the population have at least one parent born overseas, and few people in the electorate with professional employment, with most people being employed as unskilled workers.
Observation: With that in mind, that fact that it seen as even close is showing how bad NSW Labor are. That's what might well happen, with Lalich seen as a hack and Le seen as quite impressive. Also, in ethnic areas of NSW, there was a huge swing against Labor.
Prediction: Labor retain

Burrinjuck

Current MP: Katrina Hodkinson (NAT), since 1999.
Federal electorates covered by: Hume/Riverina
Margin: NAT by 17.6%
Candidates: It is assumed that Hodkinson will run again. No word on the other candidates.
Observation: This seat is very safe for the Nationals since the 2007 redistribution. It shouldn't change this year, however there is an outside chance of a strong independent emerging.
Prediction: Nationals retain

Blue Mountains (Key Seat)

Current MP: Phil Koperburg, the former Rural Fire Services Chief, since 2007 (ALP). He is retiring at this election, a victim of the 'mob' mentality of NSW Labor.
Federal electorates covered by: Macquarie
Margin: ALP by 11.1%
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is Trish Doyle. The Liberals are running Roza Sage. The Greens are running Kerrin O'Grady. Janet Mays, a councilor, is running as an independent.
Observation: Although Labor would win this seat with a similar majority on federal figures, the regional seats told a strange story on federal figures. It is worth noting that the electorate has gone to whoever won power at every election, so going by that the Libs should win easy. It is also worth noting that the Greens poll very well here, so they may surprise.
Prediction: LIBERAL GAIN

Blacktown

Current MP: Paul Gibson (ALP), since 1999. He is retiring at this election.
Federal electorates covered by: Chifley/Greenway
Margin: ALP by 22.3%
History: Based on the outer suburban suburb of Blacktown, this electorate is a very safe one for Labor. The only time that the Liberals won it in it's long history was in 1959.
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is John Robertson, the current Transport minister, and the former head of Unions NSW. He was a member in the Legislative Council for a couple of years, suggesting that the move to the Lower House could set off a leadership challenge after this year. Karlo Siljeg is the Liberal candidate.
Observation: Although Labor can expect a drop in support here, it is unlikely that they'd be in trouble.
Prediction: Labor retain

Bega

Current MP: Andrew Constance (LIB), since 2003.
Margin: LIB by 5.1%
History: Based on the far South Coast in NSW, this is usually a safe Liberal seat. Labor has never won it, however the swing was far smaller than most seats won by the Libs.
Candidates: It is assumed that Andrew Constance is running again. No word on a Labor or other candidates.
Observation: Although the margin is small enough for Labor to win it someday in the future, given the havoc that's likely to spread over NSW this year, it won't happen this time round.
Prediction: Liberal retain

Baulkham Hills

Current MP: Wayne Merton (LIB), since 1991. He is retiring at this election
Margin: LIB by 10.3%
History: Based on the upper-class conservative heartland on the North Shore, and in the Hills District, this seat has always been won by the Liberal party, and usually by comfortable margins. It was called Carlingford before 1991.
Candidates: The new Liberal candidate is David Elliott, the CEO of the Civil Contractors Federation, and a former Army person. Labor's candidate is Tony Hay, who I know little about other than the fact that he contested this seat in 2007.
Observation: This seat is very safe for the Liberals and in a year like this it should be won very easily by them.
Prediction: Liberal retain

Bathurst (Key Seat)

Current MP: Gerard Martin (ALP), since 1999. He is retiring at this election.
Margin: ALP by 13%
History: Based on Bathurst, Lithgow and surrounding rural areas, this seat is typically a safe one for the ALP due to the high Labor vote in the big towns of Lithgow and Bathurst. However, the seat has been won by conservative parties in the past.
Candidates: The new Labor candidate is Dale Turner, an operator of a property conveyancing with his wife. Nationals candidate is Paul Toole, the local mayor of Bathurst Council.
Issues: A seat where privatisation might hurt.
Observation: On paper, this seat is safe for Labor. However, before the 1999 election, it was held by Labor by a margin of less than 1%, and the MP is retiring. There was also a big swing towards the Nationals at the federal election in this seat and it won't surprise if the Nationals pick it up. There could also be an independent challenge here somewhere.
Prediction: NATIONALS GAIN

Barwon

Current MP: Kevin Humphries (National), since 2007
2007 margin: 6.2% for Nationals (over an independent)
History: Based on the vast area of Northern NSW, this electorate does not seem to have a base. The seat used to be a bellwether, but since the 1950's it has been held by the Nationals.
Candidates: Kevin Humphries is probably running again. No sign of an independent challenger or a Labor candidate yet.
Observation: While this seat is safe for the Nationals, other country electorates have had an independent challenger who have either won or done well in a country seat. However, the fact that it contains about a quarter of NSW means that it is harder for an independent to get a large enough vote to win.
Prediction: Nationals retain

Bankstown

Current MP: Tony Stewart since 1995 (ALP). He is retiring at this election.
2007 margin: ALP by 25.4%
History: Another seat based on Labor's ethnic, working class heartland. For all of it's history it has been held by the ALP, and it's been around since the 20's!
Candidates: The new candidate is local mayor Tania Mihailuk. It does not look like a Liberal candidate has been selected, showing their hopes in winning this seat.
Observation: This seat is very safe for Labor and the corresponding federal seat (Blaxland) did not get a big bump in the Labor margin like other similar seats.
Prediction: Labor retain

Balmain (Key Seat)

Current MP: Verity Firth since 2007 (ALP). She is the Minister for Education.

2007 margin: ALP by 3.7% vs the Greens

History: The area where Labor was founded, it was traditionally a very safe area for Labor, but the times are changing. Gentrification has changed the area from a seaside industrial area to a trendy place to live close to the CBD. While for whatever reason the seat is not at risk to the Liberals, it is one of the best areas in Australia for the Greens, with the Greens controlling Leichhardt Council, which runs through the seat.

Candidates: Although there were rumours that she wouldn't, Verity Firth is running again. The Greens candidate is local mayor Jamie Parker. Liberal candidate is James Falk.
Issues: There's always one. Verity Firth's husband Matthew Chesheh, a staffer to Roads Minister David Borger, was caught over possession of a ecstasy pill, which forced him to tender his resignation as a staffer. While this will hurt in many seats, in a hippie seat like Balmain, it may get her some sympathy.

Observation: Gentrification is wrecking the ALP alive here. Although Firth is a lot better than most of the ALP hacks, it is hard for her to retain the seat, and the Greens have put up a good candidate (unlike a lot of people which seem to be borderline-Communists, not that there's that much problem with it :p), so you'd expect that the Greens will finally win a lower house electorate at state level with single-member constituency's. The thing that may save Labor is sympathy over the drug scandal, plus a possible rise in the Liberal vote may give Labor a chance under OPV, and even give themselves an outside chance of snatching this seat.

Prediction: GREENS GAIN

Ballina

Current MP: Don Page (National) since 1988.
2007 margin: Nationals by 14.5%
History: Based on the North Coast, at federal level it is a former Nationals heartland that is drifting strongly towards the ALP. However, at state level, it is still a safe Nationals seat, perhaps because Labor haven't tried hard enough, or maybe because the high Green vote that is wiped out due to OPV. Interestingly, it contains Byron Shire, an area of massive Green support.
Candidates: It is expected that Page will run again, despite being in parliament for ages.
Observation: A safe Nationals seat (albeit one that could be more marginal if Labor tried harder), however given Labor's troubles, don't be surprised if the Greens finish 2nd here.
Prediction: Nationals retain

Auburn

Current MP: Barbara Perry since 2003 (ALP). She is currently the minister for Local Government and Juvenile Justice.
2007 margin: ALP by 28.7%
History: Based on Labor's working class heartland, it is one of the safest seats in the country. It has a high proportion of Muslim's and it was once held by Jack Lang, the radical socialist Premier.
Candidates: Barbara Perry is running again. Liberal candidate is Ned Attie, who doesn't have a profile on the Liberal candidate website, perhaps a sign on how they see their attempts to win.
Observation: While the demographics overwhelmingly favour Labor, it is less safe due to the problems with the government. However, it is hard to see this seat falling even in a rout like this electorate.
Prediction: Labor retain

Albury

Well, I'm doing a review of all of the 93 electorates in NSW. Should be good reading.

Albury - named after the town Albury.

Incumbent MP: Greg Aplin (Liberal), since 2003.
2007 margin: LIB by 19.0%
History: Based on the border town of Albury, Albury is like many country electorates, a conservative hotbed. As it is largely Albury rather than having a lot of rural areas around it, it is held by the Liberals. Although a mayor won it in the 70's and 80's, it is hard to see it going anywhere else.
Candidates: No news about the Labor candidate, it is expected that Aplin will re-contest.
Observation: This seat is incredibly safe for Liberal and any year, let alone this year, it is very predictable.
Prediction: Liberal retain

According to the pendulum, 6 seats are held by margins under 5%, these being Miranda, Menai, Wollondilly, Camden, Gosford and The Entrance. Liberal should win them all, as none of them (apart from maybe the Central Coast seats, which have retiring MP's and are drifting gradually towards Liberal, despite the recent federal election saying otherwise) are natural Labor seats. Wollondilly might be salvageable, as Phil Costa has a high local profile and the issues that are making people pissed off at Labor being less noticeable in a country seat.

A further 6 are held by margins between 5-10%, these being Monaro, Londonderry, Wyong, Coogee, Drummoyne and Heathcote. These should probably all fall too. Monaro could stay put, as Eden-Monaro swung to Labor and it's the sort of seat where a local profile of the MP might count despite everyone hating the ALP in NSW, but Eden-Monaro's generally a bellweather (since 1972, it has gone with whoever won power federally), and in Monaro, from 1941-1995, it went with whoever won power statewise, too. Heathcote's normally a safe Labor seat, but the high Green vote, which goes to Labor via preferences at federal level, might well exhaust, giving Liberal victory. Wyong is normally a Labor seat, too, but the Coast is moving to Liberal, so it'll probably be lost to the Liberals as well. The other 3 are demographically shifting to Liberal, and there's no reason why Labor should them (Drummoyne's having a lot of new housing developments which is pushing the real estate prices up, whereas Coogee's renters are being replaced by people who actually the money to be able to live there, and Londonderry I believe has some semi-rural Hawkesbury territory and outer suburban mortgage belt areas).

It's also worth having a look at; Riverstone, Rockdale, Blue Mountains, Mulgoa, Kiama, Bathurst, Parramatta, East Hills, Oatley, Strathfield, Maroubra and Kogarah. All are safe Labor seats, but for various reasons, are probably in play this year.

Balmain and Marrickville are at a big risk of falling to the Greens (Keira's an outside chance, especially given the retirement of David Campbell, but that would require something weird to happen), whereas seats like Newcastle, Maitland, Woolongong, among others, could fall to independents.

Hard to see any Liberal seats falling, although some independent seats might be at risk (Lake Macquarie's an outside chance of the Liberals overtaking the independent there, whereas a backlash in Tamworth and Port Macquarie following the decisions of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott to support Labor against the electorate's wishes, means that the Nationals could win these back).

Further details will come on board once nominations begin. I'll write up a preview for all of the electorates, but only the edgy seats will have anything substantial however.